Occupier And Investor Demand Falls Further Across Scotland

Posted on: 27 October 2022

Occupier And Investor Demand Falls Further Across Scotland

Occupier and investor demand for commercial property in Scotland fell further, according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Commercial Property Monitor.

The survey points to a weakening in the market as the prospect of further interest rate rises weigh heavily on the outlook over the year ahead.

On the occupier side, overall tenant demand in Scotland fell to a net balance of -10% of respondents; the lowest figure since the first quarter of 2021.

There has been a downward trend in occupier demand for both office and retail space - net balances of -5% and -46% respectively - although tenant demand for industrial property saw an increase through the third quarter, with a net balance of +25% of respondents reporting a rise.

The net balance of respondents regarding retail demand has now been negative for 26 consecutive quarters. Meanwhile, the net balance for industrial demand has been strongly positive since the middle quarters of 2020, when there was a Covid-related dip.

Overall rental expectations in Scotland are broadly flat for the three months ahead - down from +8% previously - but there is a big variation between industrial on the one hand and retail on the other. A net balance of +41% was recorded for industrial rental expectations and -52% for retail. But both figures were weaker than in the second quarter.

In the investment market, a net balance of -28% of respondents in Scotland cited a decline in enquiries during the third quarter. This represents the weakest return for this metric since the same quarter in 2020.

A decline was seen across all three sectors, with industrial turning slightly negative for the first time since the third quarter of 2020. Respondents said they had seen a sharp drop in interest from foreign investors.

The net balance for foreign investment enquiries was -35%; one of the biggest falls since the series began.

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